Economists have allowed themselves to walk into a trap where we say we can forecast, but no serious economist thinks we can. You don't expect dentists to be able to forecast how many teeth you'll have when you're 80. You expect them to give good advice and fix problems.
Interpretation
Economists often overestimate their ability to predict future economic events, similar to how dentists cannot predict the exact number of teeth you'll have in the future.
In this quote, Tim Harford highlights the limitations of economic forecasting, suggesting that while economists may propose they can make predictions, the reality is that uncertainty in human behavior and variables in the economy make accurate forecasting nearly impossible. He compares economists to dentists, who provide valuable advice and solutions but cannot foresee long-term outcomes, emphasizing the importance of focusing on guidance rather than predictions.
In practice
This quote can be used in presentations about economic policies to underscore the importance of seeking practical advice over predictions.
It's difficult because we tend to overrate the pain of failure. We fear it too much. That's research that emerges from psychology. We think it's going to be worse than it really is. And, I think, as we get a bit older, really after we leave school or college, we quickly stop experimenting.
In certain businesses, I would say 10 failures to one success is a perfectly acceptable ratio. Because the failures die pretty quickly, they're not that expensive, and the successes can be really huge.
Success Comes Through Rapidly Fixing our Mistakes Rather than Getting Things Right the First Time.
All warfare is based on deception. Therefore, when capable, feign incapacity; when active, inactivity. When near, make it appear that you are far away; when far away, that you are to lure him; feign disorder and strike him. When he concentrates, prepare against him; where he is strong, avoid him. Anger his general and confuse him. Pretend inferiority and encourage his arrogance.
The thing that you think is imperfect about you is the thing that makes you who you are. It separates you from everybody else. I have a scar on my lip, and for years I hated it. But now its become my thing. It's like, without it, I'm not me. You can't be perfect, so enjoy your imperfections. I can't stress that enough.
Fault always lies in the same place: with him weak enough to lay blame.
Vocabularies are crossing circles and loops. We are defined by the lines we choose to cross or to be confined by.
I'm not perfect. But I'll always be real
Most of my advances were by mistake. You uncover what is when you get rid of what isn't.
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