Politics determines who has the power, not who has the truth.
Paul KrugmanRead
If you want a simple model for predicting the unemployment rate in the United States over the next few years, here it is: It will be what Greenspan wants it to be, plus or minus a random error reflecting the fact that he is not quite God.
Interpretation
What this quote means
The unemployment rate is largely influenced by the decisions of key figures, such as Greenspan, while also being subject to unpredictable factors.
In this quote, Paul Krugman suggests that the projection of the unemployment rate in the United States is heavily reliant on the intentions or predictions of influential economic leaders, particularly Alan Greenspan, who was known for his significant impact on monetary policy. The phrase indicates that while these leaders have substantial control, there is also an inherent unpredictability in economic outcomes due to a multitude of unforeseen variables.
Themes
UnemploymentEconomicsPredictionGreenspan
In practice
Example use cases
In a discussion about economic forecasting during a seminar on macroeconomics.
More from Paul Krugman
All quotes →Our popular economics writers, however, are not in the business of giving their readers a ringside seat on the research action; with no exception I can think of, they use their books to do an end run around the normal structure of scholarship, to preach ideas that few serious economists share. Often, these ideas are not just at odds with the professional consensus; they are demonstrably wrong, and sometimes terminally silly. But they sound good to the unwary reader.
Paul KrugmanRead
The raw fact is that every successful example of economic development this past century ... has taken place via globalization.
Paul KrugmanRead
Wealthy Americans who benefit hugely from a system rigged in their favor react with hysteria to anyone who points out just how rigged the system is.
Paul KrugmanRead
It’s not about the budget; it’s about the power...So will the attack on unions succeed? I don’t know. But anyone who cares about retaining government of the people by the people should hope that it doesn’t.
Paul KrugmanRead
The economics profession went astray because economists, as a group, mistook beauty, clad in impressive-looking mathematics, for truth.
Paul KrugmanRead
Similar quotes
I cannot disagree with you that having something like 500 economists is extremely unhealthy. As you say, it is not conducive to independent, objective research. You and I know there has been censorship of the material published. Equally important, the location of the economists in the Federal Reserve has had a significant influence on the kind of research they do, biasing that research toward noncontroversial technical papers on method as opposed to substantive papers on policy and results
Milton FriedmanRead
Contrary to a tenacious myth, France is not owned by California pension funds or the Bank of China, any more than the United States belongs to Japanese and German investors. The fear of getting into such a predicament is so strong today that fantasy often outstrips reality. The reality is that inequality with respect to capital is a far greater domestic issue than it is an international one.
Thomas PikettyRead
If you feed enough oats to the horse, some will pass through to feed the sparrows (referring to "trickle down" economics).
John Kenneth GalbraithRead
Bailing out every bank that fails makes the system riskier, not safer.
Nassim Nicholas TalebRead
In order to deal with all the medical cost demands and other challenges in the U.S., as we look to raise that revenue, the rich will have to pay slightly more. That's quite clear.
Bill GatesRead
A banker who is allowed to borrow money at X and loan it out at X plus Y will just go crazy and do too much of it if the civilization doesn't have rules that prevent it.
Charlie MungerRead