We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
Nate SilverRead
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
Interpretation
What this quote means
It's more important to have a reasonable accuracy in predictions than to aim for perfection, as striving for 100% may indicate flawed assumptions.
Nate Silver emphasizes the importance of setting realistic expectations in forecasting. He suggests that aiming for an accuracy of 80%-85% is sufficient for effective decision-making, and that striving for complete accuracy may lead to misguided conclusions or overconfidence in predictions, highlighting the complexities and uncertainties inherent in predictions.
Themes
PredictionsAccuracyForecastingEstimationsRealism
In practice
Example use cases
In a team meeting discussing project timelines, one might say, 'As Nate Silver noted, we want to get 80%-85% of predictions right to allow for some flexibility in our planning.'
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The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
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