We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
Nate SilverRead
We're not that much smarter than we used to be, even though we have much more information - and that means the real skill now is learning how to pick out the useful information from all this noise.
Interpretation
Despite having access to more information, our ability to discern useful knowledge has become the essential skill.
This quote by Nate Silver emphasizes that the increase in available information does not directly correlate with intelligence. Instead, the real challenge in the modern world is to sift through the overwhelming amount of data and identify what is genuinely valuable and applicable. In a society flooded with information, critical thinking and discernment are more crucial than ever.
In practice
In a presentation about effective data analysis.
We want to get 80%-85% of predictions right, not 100%. Or else we calibrated our estimates in the wrong way.
A lot of news is just entertainment masquerading as news.
Racism is predictable. It's predicted by interaction or lack thereof with people unlike you, people of other races.
One of the pervasive risks that we face in the information age, as I wrote in the introduction, is that even if the amount of knowledge in the world is increasing, the gap between what we know and what we think we know may be widening.
A lot of journalism wants to have what they call objectivity without them having a commitment to pursuing the truth, but that doesn't work. Objectivity requires belief in and a commitment toward pursuing the truth - having an object outside of our personal point of view.
The quest for certainty in forecasting outcomes can be the enemy of progress.
Do you think it's funny to be so serious when I'm not even out of high school?' she asked. 'I don't see how it could be any other way,' said Lee. 'Laughter comes later, like wisdom teeth, and laughter at yourself comes last of all in a mad race with death, and sometimes it isn't in time.
Circumstances-what are circumstances? I make circumstances
You should rather be grateful for the weeds you have in your mind, because eventually they will enrich your practice.
It isn't the big troubles in life that require character. Anybody can rise to a crisis and face a crushing tragedy with courage, but to meet the petty hazards of the day with a laugh - I really think that requires spirit. It's the kind of character that I am going to develop. I am going to pretend that all life is just a game which I must play as skillfully and fairly as I can. If I lose, I am going to shrug my shoulders and laugh - also if I win.
Since you have to do the things you have to do, be wise enough to do some of the things you want to do.
Hope is a good breakfast, but it is a bad supper.
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