The strength of a theory is not what it allows, but what it prohibits; if you can invent an equally persuasive explanation for any outcome, you have zero knowledge.
Eliezer YudkowskyRead
There are no surprising facts, only models that are surprised by facts; and if a model is surprised by the facts, it is no credit to that model.
Interpretation
What this quote means
This quote emphasizes that surprise arises not from the facts themselves, but from our models and expectations about those facts.
Eliezer Yudkowsky's quote suggests that our understanding and interpretations of reality are shaped by our mental models. When we encounter unexpected facts, it reveals limitations in our models rather than any inherent surprise in the facts themselves. It encourages us to critically examine our assumptions and theories, as a failure to anticipate can diminish the credibility of our understanding.
Themes
ModelsSurpriseFactsUnderstandingKnowledge
In practice
Example use cases
In a lecture on critical thinking, this quote can illustrate the importance of questioning our preconceived notions.
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All quotes →Your strength as a rationalist is your ability to be more confused by fiction than by reality. If you are equally good at explaining any outcome, you have zero knowledge.
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The obvious choice isn't always the best choice, but sometimes, by golly, it is. I don't stop looking as soon I find an obvious answer, but if I go on looking, and the obvious-seeming answer still seems obvious, I don't feel guilty about keeping it.
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